WC2026 · Statistical Predictor · autostat404.com

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The only tool that analyzes all 48 teams using real qualifying data to tell you exactly who wins — and the most likely score.

Exact score predictedNot just who wins

Real qualifying dataEvery goal analyzed

104 matches coveredGroups to Final

Poisson modelProfessional analytics

Free to start · Pro unlocks everything for $4.99

48Nations

104Matches

FreeAccess

$4.99Pro

Match Predictor

Poisson model on real qualifying data. Free: 2 predictions/day. Go Pro for unlimited.

Match of the Day

Tournament Simulation

Deterministic — always picks the most probable outcome. The most likely WC2026 bracket.

What If? PRO

Simulate any head-to-head match. Who wins if Argentina faces France in the final?

Monte Carlo PRO

100 random simulations — see who wins most often. Real probability ranking.

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Odds Value Checker

Enter the bookmaker odds — we tell you if there is value or not.

Statistical Insights

Key findings from the Poisson model — data-driven insights you won't find anywhere else.

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Team Comparator

Full stats side by side — attack, defense, qualifying form, head-to-head prediction.

Prediction History

Your saved predictions. Results will be updated as matches are played (from June 11).

Expected goals lambda = AttackA x DefenseB x 1.4 baseline. Poisson distribution gives the full score probability matrix.

lambda(A) = AttStr(A) x DefWk(B) x 1.4
P(k goals) = e^-lambda x lambda^k / k!

Attack = goals scored per game divided by confederation average. Defense = goals conceded per game divided by confederation average.

AttStr = (GF/MP) / ConfAvgGF
DefWk = (GA/MP) / ConfAvgGA

48 teams, 12 groups of 4. Top 2 + 8 best 3rd-placed teams = 32 qualify. Round of 32, R16, QF, SF, Final.

USA, Canada & Mexico are automatic hosts — ratings estimated from 2022 CONCACAF qualifying + 2023-25 Nations League.

Statistical estimates only. Does not account for injuries, suspensions, or rotation. For entertainment purposes only.

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